Zawaya

Avoiding war in the Sahel through development

By: Abdelaziz Karraky

On July 4, 2006, the Malian government and the May 23, 2006 Democratic Alliance for Change (ADC) signed the Algiers agreement. Many believed back then that the Tuareg problem in Mali was solved once and for all, thus sparing the country the potential dilemma of separation from the north, and reducing the issue to development and the redistribution of wealth between various regions.

However, the recent insurgency in some Malian cities proves that the issue has another dimension. Fear prompted many people to flee and live as refugees in other regions.

The background of today’s Tuareg insurgency is marked by 1) the increasing trend of separatism, 2) the fall of the regime of the leader Moamer Kadhafi, who used to fuel regional conflicts, and 3) the transformation of some Sahel areas into a fertile ground for al-Qaeda, given the relentless crackdown on the latter in other areas. This means that the efforts deployed by Maghreb countries to fight extremism and terrorism may face unexpected challenges.

The collapse of Kadhafi’s regime led to the proliferation of large quantities of weapons in the region. Many Tuareg men were serving the Libyan leader in one way or the other; and upon their return to their regions now, they have been facing several difficulties that might turn them into fighters on the lookout for a new cause. This means that any radical idea can attract them as its supporters.

This situation might lead to an alliance between the Tuareg movement and al-Qaeda, similarly to what happened in Afghanistan between the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Such an alliance will not only threaten the region, but it might also have an impact on Europe. Global trade will be affected as well, thus putting more strains on the global economy.

If this insurgency continues, it will further weaken the Malian government that has been engaged in the fight against all forms of extremism and terrorism. Such events will undeniably spread in the region, thus promoting separatism which will invade several countries, and offer extremism a wider space for movement, and drug, arm and human trafficking.

As a result, the region might enter a civil war with unforeseen consequences.

The fight against extremism in the region requires a comprehensive approach, starting with the Polisario that may become the primary ally of the Tuaregs, as many members of both groups fought alongside the Colonel’s militias. Moreover, many Westerners were kidnapped by the Polisario and transferred to the desert.

For their part, major powers should support the efforts of development and improved living conditions, since this is the safest way to fight extremism.