Zawaya

Maghreb armed forces: a role being defined

By: Salah Zeghidi

Whenever a Maghreb country becomes a scene of critical events that may affect its political stability, the political and civil elites raise an extremely important and controversial question: Can the armed forces in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco maintain stability and protect the peoples?

Before talking about the expected roles of Maghreb armies and their ability to defend the independence of their countries, it’s worth mentioning that the status and influence of the army differ from one country to another…

The Algerian army bears a key responsibility as the gravity center in the existing balances between various stakeholders, despite the relative shrinkage of its role in public life over the past year…

The Moroccan regime relies on two elements that play a major role in the country: The royal family, and the royal army…

As for Tunisia, Bourguiba, and Ben Ali after him, worked on reducing the military presence and its influence on the course of events, to the minimum extent possible…

In the wake of the popular uprising and the flight of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to Saudi Arabia, a huge controversy arose in the country about the real role played by the army in forcing Ben Ali to leave, and thoroughly following the events taking place in Tunisia afterward.

This is the positioning of the army in the three Maghreb countries: it’s fundamental and essential in Morocco and Algeria, and extremely secondary in Tunisia…

After the recent unprecedented events in the region and many other countries, the question now being asked is: Are all these countries heading towards explosion and breaking up with the existing power?

Or will the issue of democratization be solved through a relatively long path without going through severe crises, and while maintaining consensus between the largest and most prominent parties?

Will the army accept playing a positive role in following and preserving this path?

The situation is actually very complicated, especially in Morocco and Algeria where protests are expected to have both an inevitable political dimension and a profound social one, due to the deteriorating social conditions and accumulating tensions…

This factor will add a radical touch to the protest movement and drag it, even partially, to violence. Consequently, the military will turn into a deterrent force, with an unpredictable position: Will it protect the power against the angry crowd, or will it protect the masses against the tyrannical power?