Zawaya

Libya at the crossroads

By: Salah Zeghidi

Libya has several specific characteristics. Everyone knows that the ruling regime in the Libyan Jamahiriya is unique…

Gaddafi defines his regime as a republic, governed directly by the populace through the People’s Committees.

Since the beginning of the uprising of Libyan protesters, many observers from neighboring countries and other parts of the world have been following the developments of the situation in Libya, and raising many embarrassing, unanswerable questions…

Why?

Because the mission, power-sharing, authority and roles of the government bodies are not clear…

For instance, the latest development in Libya is the split within the armed forces. Some military and security forces are pro-Gaddafi’s regime, while others joined the protest movement. The news confirmed that the armed forces joined the protesters in southern and eastern Libya, particularly in the large city of Benghazi.

Many observers who are familiar with Libyan society, especially its tribes, believe that the division of the armed forces could pose significant risks and evolve to the outbreak of a civil or tribal war that can turn into a real carnage…

This means that the tribal strife – that the Libyan regime had successfully reduced and contained – can emerge anew…

In this case, the Libyan territorial integrity will obviously be exposed to serious dangers. Such a development can have a negative impact on the future of Libya, as well as neighboring countries.

It comes down to the question of: what will happen to the Libyan Jamahiriya if the conflict escalates between its regions and tribes? Is Libya facing the threat of division? What if the news about Derna becoming an Islamic emirate is true? How will things evolve within the tribes located on the Libyan-Egyptian borders? Also, how will oil wealth be distributed in the future if division persists within the Libyan armed forces?